Why Did India Send Bangladesh In?
The pitch appeared to play well in the morning session and India’s decision to bowl first looked a bad one. On the reasonable assumption that the Test team thinks harder about its decisions than observers do, its worth considering why they might have put the opposition in.
Three years ago, India won the toss against New Zealand at Green Park and batted first. They scored 345. Tim Southee (5/69) and Kyle Jamieson (3/89) did the damage for New Zealand. There was one catch taken by a close-in fielder (and only three other catches by non-keepers in the outfield) in the whole Test match. Mayank Agarwal was caught at second slip of Southee early in India’s second innings. The wicket played slow and low. This 2024 wicket hasn’t demonstrated low bounce in the same way. At least, not yet with the newish ball. Compared to the first Test, the bounce was lower. In the first innings in Chennai, Jasprit Bumrah’s average bounce from a 6m length was 72.5 cms. In Kanpur, it has been 70.1 cms so far. In Chennai, Bumrah’s speed after the ball bounced was 94.3% of its speed before the ball bounced. In Kanpur it was 90.9%. With the older, softer ball, this loss of speed will become more pronounced.
The other fact in this Test match is the weather forecast. Rain is forecast for the first three days, and 55 overs were lost to rain on Day One. With World Test Championship (WTC) points at stake, India need to give themselves the best chance to win even though they are ahead in the series. Playing for a draw and allowing Bangladesh to make the running since they are trailing in the series doesn’t help India’s WTC cause. India have to bowl Bangladesh out twice to win. It made sense then, to make an early start.
The reasoning was simple enough. After winning the toss, given the weather forecast and the WTC points situation, the choice for India was
(a) Bat first and hope that they have to bat only once (this would depend on them earning a lead of at least 200) and bowl last when the wicket might wear (keep in mind the NZ experience last time)
(b) Offer Bangladesh the better of the conditions (BAN get to bowl last) in exchange for more time to take 20 wickets.
Unsurprisingly, they chose the attacking option. By bowling first, they give themselves the option of batting just a few overs and declaring behind if necessary. By bowling first, India are also betting that their attack is not only better than Bangladesh’s (a reasonable bet), but also good enough to bowl Bangladesh out relatively quickly (80-100 overs or so) on a flat, slow pitch (a daring bet). IND seem less worried that the pitch will break and become difficult for batting later in the match, than they are that the pitch will slow down and die and the rain will kill enough overs to prevent them from bowling Bangladesh out twice.
It is a bold bet against an experienced Bangladesh line up which made plenty of runs in Pakistan just last month. The Indian bowlers have created plenty of jeopardy so far. Whether or not this can continue with the old ball, will probably decide the outcome of this Test match.