Bazball triumphed in the 4th innings at Edgbaston. As a way of playing Test cricket, it is charmed. In the 2022 summer, English batters named Root, Stokes or Bairstow have produced 1402 runs at 87.6 runs per wicket and 84.6 runs per 100 balls faced. English batters not named Root, Stokes or Bairstow have produced 1012 runs at 25.3 runs per wickets and 58.9 runs per 100 balls faced. The visiting batters scored 2416 runs at 30.2 runs per wicket and 53.2 runs per 100 balls faced.
In his first innings century at Edgbaston, Bairstow survived 31 false shots. In his 2nd innings 142 not out, Joe Root survived 24. Of the 55 Test innings by Bairstow from December 2017 to January 2022 for which control figures are available, he survived 31 false shots before being dismissed only twice. Of the 86 innings by Root in the same database, he survived more than 24 false shots only 11 times. Overall, of the 376 innings played by number 5 batters in the database, 18 survived 31 or more false shots, or 1 in 21 innings. 50 out of 381 innings by number 4 bats survived 24 or more false shots, or 2 out of every 15 innings.
Centuries of this kind are rare. For so many of them to be produced, so close together, requires both a great deal of good fortune and some mighty fine form. Bairstow and Root have middled most balls they haven’t missed and when they’ve middled them, the timing has invariably been sublime. Between them, Root and Bairstow have managed 155 fours and 16 sixes.
In their first innings at Edgbaston, England faced 382 balls and played false shots to 123 of them. For 60 overs, they were beaten, on average, twice an over, and produced 284. Such a high frequency of false shots has typically produced 10 wickets in about 70-80 false shots.
This degree of good fortune is well above average. But it does come about from time to time. It should be noted that the degree of bad fortune that England encountered in the 4th innings at Lord’s (they lost 10 wickets in 63 false shots in 316 balls) is also above average. Swings and roundabouts.
In the long run, its a question of where the average ends up. Since the start of 2018, India have batted first (either because they were put in or because they chose to) in 16 Tests in England, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. They’ve won 7 and lost 9. They’ve bowled first in 10 Tests in these countries (again, either because they chose to, or because they lost the toss), won 2 and lost 6. Despite these three defeats in 2022 (2 in South Africa and one in England), India have done far better batting first than they have batting second in Tests outside Asia. These days, it is unfashionable to consider Tests in the West Indies (even though England went there and lost recently). But Since 2018, India have batted first in both Tests they played in West Indies and won both.
England has been hospitable to 4th innings chases in recent years. In 2017, West Indies successfully chased 322 against England. In 2020 they chased 200 and won. In 2019, England famously chased 359 against Australia and won. In 2020 they chased 277 against Pakistan and won. And then, there are the four chases by England in 2022.
It is something of a pattern of Tests in England, that a first innings deficit can be reversed in the 2nd innings. In 2019 at Edgbaston, England led by 90 on the first innings and lost. At Headingley, Australia led by 112 on the first innings and lost. In 2020, Pakistan led by 107 on the first innings at Old Trafford and lost. In 2021, India led by 95 on the first innings at Trent Bridge and faced a target of 200 in the 4th. England led by 99 on the first innings at The Oval and lost.
Since 2017, teams have overcome 1st innings deficit in excess of hundred 4 times in 37 Tests in England. Outside England it has been achieved once in 190 Tests during the same period. Fourth innings targets between 200 and 450 or more have been set 21 times in England since the start of 2017. There have been 8 successful chases in England. Outside England, a 4th innings target in the same range has been set 67 times. There have been 9 successful chases in these 67.
The cricketing calculation of Bazball is that given batters who are good at stroke play (as opposed to batters like Pujara who have a limited range of scoring strokes but are good at defense), the conventional wisdom in Test cricket overestimates the risk involved in attempting the attacking stroke. When you have a batter in great form, and when the wickets offer less seam movement than usual, England have shown that this is a sustainable proposition. Will it survive conditions in which wickets break up and misbehave, or wickets which are seaming, and batters who are not in the form of their lives? It is unlikely to, but this remains to be seen.
India remain a great Test team. They’re currently the only side which has a winning record in their most recent home and away tours to all Test playing countries (if Australia win their series in Sri Lanka, they will join India). For the most of the Edgbaston Test, they were magnificent. They had the worst of the conditions and they had the better of England for the first three days. The weather improved on the fourth and fifth, and the conditions turned in England’s favor. This is perhaps an irony of Bazball - in “English” conditions, India outplayed England, while on the flat pitch of the 4th and 5th day, England outplayed India.
It falls to great teams to suffer great defeats in Test cricket. The great Australians of the Waugh/Ponting years suffered a few in the list below (it excluded their unlikely defeat at Eden Gardens in 2001 since that did not involve a run chase).
Could the results in 2022 be a sign of trouble ahead for India? Perhaps. The middle order looks unsettled. But as problems go, these are small ones compared to the ones Indian Test teams have lived with for much of my lifetimes and yours.
For now, the future of Bazball remains a thrilling question. I remain skeptical.
Brilliant