When Virat Kohli resigned as the IND Test captain at the end of India’s previous tour of South Africa in January 2022, it felt as though an era had ended. It was an era of unprecedented success marked by the single-minded pursuit of 20 wickets every time IND played a Test match, and the coming together of a bowling attack of unusual depth, quality and experience with both pace and spin. Ishant Sharma was finally the complete article, Mohammad Shami matured, Jasprit Bumrah arrived as the first Indian world class quick bowler, and Mohammed Siraj joined them after a long first class stint. Opponents didn’t get any easy overs anywhere against India in a Test match.
Since the start of 2022, IND have now lost five consecutive Tests outside Asia - three in South Africa and two in England. The great lessons of the Kohli-era - the pursuit of 20 wickets, playing five bowlers, playing four fast bowlers and one spinner outside Asia, are all still alive and well. But Ishant Sharma (age 35) has finished. Since his last Test match for India in November 2021 against New Zealand in Kanpur, Ishant has played only 3 first class matches for Delhi (Delhi have played 10 Ranji fixtures). In this time, he has appeared for Delhi in 7 out of 19 Vijay Hazare Trophy matches, and all 15 of Delhi’s Syed Mushtaq Ali Trophy fixtures. He has also appeared for Delhi Capitals in the IPL. His attention has shifted to the limited overs formats.
With Mohammed Shami missing due to injury, India have had to pick new blood in South Africa. 2023 has been a rotten year for India in terms of injuries. This fact has been masked, in large part by the fact that their Test and ODI assignments until this South African tours have been largely successful and their injury management has worked. KL Rahul, Jasprit Bumrah, Rishabh Pant, Hardik Pandya and now Mohammed Shami have all be out in 2023 with long term injuries. Pandya was injured again in freak fashion during the World Cup.
The inexperience told in Centurion. The downturn Shardul Thakur’s returns (he has 7 wickets in his last 5 Tests, compared 24 in the five first Tests he played after covid) has not helped either. The transition is well and truly here. IND have not been able to exert enough control with the ball to be competitive. Thakur and the debutant conceded 2/194 in 39 overs. Bumrah, Ashwin and Siraj conceded 7/201 in 69.4 overs.
It was, nevertheless, an odd fixture. Dean Elgar made 185 in a first innings of 408 all out to give South Africa a first innings lead of 163. Elgar’s runs exceeded the lead. This, in itself, is not rare. One player’s score is larger than a team’s first innings lead in 1001 Tests (or about 40% of all Tests). Big hundreds (scores in excess of 150) exceeding a team’s first innings lead are less common. They have occured 90 times in Tests. These tend to be high scoring fixtures. Recently, Sri Lanka played Ireland at Galle and replied to Ireland’s 492 with 704 (a lead of 212) of which 245 came from Kusal Mendis. There were three other Sri Lankan centurions. There are 39 Tests in which the team which took the first innings lead has had only one centurion whose score exceeds the team’s first innings lead. These tend to be relatively high scoring innings. For instance, Dinesh Chandimal made 206 in Sri Lanka’s first innings of 554 at Galle to give them a 190 run first innings lead over Australia (SL won by an innings).
19 of the 39 instances in which a solitary 150+ score accounted for more than a team’s first innings lead came when the trailing team’s first innings score was below 300. Elgar’s 185 is only the 6th instance in which this happens when the trailing team’s first innings score was below 250.
Such cases are rare because everything else apart from that one big innings in an otherwise low-scoring first innings suggests that run scoring is very difficult. Elgar survived 58 false shots in his 185. In 3953 Test innings from 2017 to 2022 for which I have control records [see some old stuff about control here 1, 2, 3], only 6 innings lasted more than 58 false shots. The average opener in this period survived 11.7 false shots per dismissal. Dean Elgar survived 14.1 false shots per dismissal on average in this period. Elgar’s innings was something of an outlier for Elgar, for openers, for Test batters and for the conditions.
Before Elgar, one has to go back to 2015 at Sabina Park, when Steve Smith made 199 in an Australian first innings of 399 all out (next highest score was 47), which gave Australia and 179 runs first innings lead. In November 2001, Herschelle Gibbs made 196 at Port Elizabeth (as it was then) in South Afric’s 362 all out, giving the hosts a 161 run first innings lead. In December 1998, Justin Langer’s 179 Australia’s 391 all out gave them a 164 run first innings lead in Adelaide. In 1994, Dave Houghton made 266 in Zimbabwe’s 462/9d against Sri Lanka which gave Zimbabwe and 244 runs first innings lead in Bulawayo. Before that, we have to go back to February 1971, when Dilip Sardesai made 212 in India’s first innings of 387 all out for an eventual first innings lead of 170. In March 1969, Seymour Nurse made 258 in West Indies first innings of 417 for an eventual first innings lead of 200 against New Zealand in Christchurch. Finally, Clyde Walcott made 220 out of West Indies’s 383 all out in Barbados to give them an eventual lead of 202 in the first innings againt England in February 1954. Houghton, Nurse and Sardesai’s innings came in Tests which were eventually drawn. Elgar, Gibbs and Walcott’s runs came in their team’s wins.
Whether Elgar’s innings is a sign that IND’s bowlers weren’t as bad as the inexperience of their 3rd and 4th (and to be fair, even 2nd) fast bowlers suggests, or whether it is a sign of their inexperience is unclear. I’m inclined to think that the inexperience means that IND is going to find it difficult to compete in Tests outside Asia, Elgar or no Elgar. Having said that, IND have to persist with the bowlers they think are good enough to dismiss good batters in Test cricket. It would be a mistake for IND to retreat into the old ways and give in to the temptation of packing their batting. If anything, they are better off playing their five best bowlers for what they estimate the conditions to be, regardless of how well these bowlers can bat.
In the four years from 2018-21 when they had Ishant Sharma available most of the time, IND took 20 wickets in 15 out of 24 Tests in South Africa, England, New Zealand and Australia. They won 9 of these 15 Tests. In the five consecutive defeats in these countries since the start of 2022, IND have failed to take more than 13 wickets in any of the Tests. Until they find better fast bowling support for Jasprit Bumrah (16 wickets at 26 in the 4 Tests he played), this is unlikely to change. They won’t find this support unless they’re prepared to persist with some of these bowlers, just as they once persisted with Ishant Sharma. It will be surprising if they don’t.
That was a heroic test performance by Dean Elgar. With Bavuma out and South Africa down to ten men he took over the captaincy, scored 45% of SA’s runs, made a beautiful assist on the second innings run out and clearly inspired his young team to perform beyond expectations. Analysis is great and very helpful but sometimes you simply have to say - Cometh the hour!!! It’s what makes sport beautiful.