India Swept Away By Patel

Anthropogenic climate change is the idea that human activity at an industrial scale has caused emissions of greenhouses gases to an extent which is sufficient to change climate. This change in climate produces a change in weather patterns. For example, the warming of the Atlantic Ocean makes more severe hurricanes more likely. Industralization and the pursuit of economic growth via competitive markets have produced wealth, scientific advancement, standards of living and life expectancy beyond what people in the 18th century could have imagined. But it is also producing very damaging (to life and property) extreme weather events with increasing regularly. Perfect storms are more likely with warmer oceans.

India have faced one of these over the last three weeks and a bit against New Zealand. In 705 overs of cricket, New Zealand have won 3 Tests out of 3. Three result pitches and the combination of the toss and distribution of luck has overwhelmed India. The team winning the toss in Tests in India has scored 80 runs more than the teams losing the toss over 20 wickets in the fifty most recent Tests in India. This doesn’t always work in India’s favor. India have won 26 out of the last 50 Test tosses in India. They have typically had the means to overcome the disadvantage of losing the toss. Before this New Zealand series, they had 14 wins and 3 defeats in the 22 Tests in which they lost the toss, and 21 wins and 1 defeat in the 25 Tests in which they won the toss.

India lost 60 wickets in 410 false shots in this series (or one dismissal every 6.8 false shots). New Zealand survived 543 false shots for their 52 wickets (or one dismissal every 10.5 false shots). If only the respective top sevens are considered, then New Zealand’s survived 12.3 false shots per dismissal, while India’s survive 7.7 false shots per dismissal. Far too many Indian bats fell to early false shots compared to New Zealand.

Its not difficult to see where the toss helps on pitches like Pune and Mumbai. It is in the early runs in the first two or three hours of the Test match. New Zealand reached 197/3 in Pune batting first, and 159/3 batting first in Mumbai. Their last 17 wickets for 317 runs in Pune, and 250 runs in Mumbai. But those first 150-200 runs made before the pitches began to turn were too much for India to overcome batting second and fourth.

There have been 2 draws in the last 30 Tests in India, going back to the start of 2018. Losing three out of three on result pitches is perhaps not quite as drastic as losing three out of three, or even losing a series in other periods in which every second (in the 1980s) or third (in the 1990s and 2000s) Test is drawn. In the climate of modern Test cricket, shaped as it is by a combination of the compressed calendar, the incentives of the WTC to prepare result pitches, and unusual weather patterns (such as in Bangalore and even Pune and Mumbai, where the rains persisted until the second half of October this year, disrupting pitch preparation) winning 7 and losing 4 Tests should not be surprising.

In 2024, India have

1. Lost 0/6 and still won the Test.

2. Led by 190 on the first innings and still lost the Test.

3. Won six Tests in a row

4. Been swept in a 3 match home series in India for the first time ever

5. Won a Test in which three days were lost to the weather

India have won 7 Tests in 2024. Before 2016, they won 7 or more only once in a calendar year (in 2010, when they won 8 and lost 3 out of 14). Since 2016, they’ve won at least 7 Tests in each year other then 2023, 2022 and 2020.

This series shows just how misguided the charge of “doctored” pitches is. Let’s be clear about what the sting of this charge has been. It has been that India prepare pitches designed to help them. This is a misunderstanding of how cricket works. India cannot dictate who the opposition picks (no team can do that). What they can do is prepare pitches which are more or less likely to produce a result - pitches which are more or less likely to offer the bowlers some deviation, either by turn or seam. By their very nature, result pitches increase the likelihood of victory and defeat. For a whole decade, India have been good enough to make it look like these pitches have been prepared to suit their spin (and their pace).

Ajaz Patel became the fourth bowler to complete two ten wicket match hauls in an Away Test. He followed Lance Gibbs (Old Trafford in 1963 and 1966), Dennis Lillee and Shane Warne (both at The Oval, Lillee in 1972 and 1981, Warne in 2001 and 2005). Patel completed this marvellous feat just a few miles away from where he was born.

New Zealand have been India’s bogey team in the last 6 years or so. They have now swept India Home (in 2019/20) and Away (in 2024/25). They also beat India in the World Test Championship Final of 2021. New Zealand have been to India what India have been to Australia in this era.

There’s not much point discussing the Indian batting against spin (or pace). Firstly, they score well against pace and spin, and better than their predecessors did. They play on result pitches more regularly than their predecessors did. Secondly, much of the complaining is due to nostalgia about an imagined (and almost entirely fictitious) past, and disappointment in the present. There’s very little cricket in it.

This has been a great result for New Zealand. It was achieved without Williamson, Boult and in the final Test, Tim Southee. It’s a high voltage shock of a result for India. Whether they like it or not, age is going to force changes in their ranks. Their luck will fluctuate as it usually does. But their quality, especially with the ball, will determine how well they can withstand the consequences of these fluctuations in cricket’s contemporary competitive climate.