Honestly,I love this approach,It gives a much better idea about the kind of pressure slow openers put on the team and highlights the importance of fast scoring in t20s....My only question is why shouldn't the expected runs in first innings depend on the runs scored so far...This way the expected runs till next wicket loss after 6 overs would be the same for a team who is 19/1 and 60/1
That's correct. It will. The model does not concern itself with choices or lapses. It only considers resources. This is a good approach because there are no circumstances in which being n/1 after k overs is a better position than being (n+1)/1 after k overs. The expected runs represent the average expectation given all scores in the same situation.
Honestly,I love this approach,It gives a much better idea about the kind of pressure slow openers put on the team and highlights the importance of fast scoring in t20s....My only question is why shouldn't the expected runs in first innings depend on the runs scored so far...This way the expected runs till next wicket loss after 6 overs would be the same for a team who is 19/1 and 60/1
That's correct. It will. The model does not concern itself with choices or lapses. It only considers resources. This is a good approach because there are no circumstances in which being n/1 after k overs is a better position than being (n+1)/1 after k overs. The expected runs represent the average expectation given all scores in the same situation.