On Scoreboard "Pressure"
What is it? Does it exist? Is there evidence of it in the 2023 IPL?
Pretty much every result in Cricket or T20 is attributed to “pressure” by a particular subset of fans. If a bowler fails to defend 10 in the final over of a T20 fixture, its “the pressure of the big moment” which got to the bowler. Teams fail to chase 200, and that’s “scoreboard pressure”.
This type of fan will ask: “What explains the fact that teams are scoring 200 more often in the first innings than in the 2nd? What could it possibly be, other than ‘scoreboard pressure’?
The premise here is that teams have scored 200 more easily batting first than batting second in the 2023 IPL. Teams batting first have won more often than teams batting second in the 2023 IPL. But the first premise - that 200 is easier to score batting first than batting second - is dubious. 13 out of 38 first innings in the 2023 IPL have produced a total of 200 or more. In 7 of those 13 fixtures, the team chasing has also scored 200 or more, winning 2 and losing 5.
So, if we consider it properly, teams batting first have scored 200 or more 13 times in 38 innings. Teams batting 2nd have scored 200 or more 7 times in 13 innings. Of the chases under 200, two have been completed at over 10 runs per over.
2nd innings are different to first innings because in the 2nd, the target it known. So a lot of teams, when chasing 7 or 8 runs per over, ration their risk taking to achieve the asking rate. The higher the asking rate, the more frequent the requirement to take a risk, and consequently, the larger the total number of required risks. The larger the total number of risks, the larger the likelihood of failure. This is why teams fail to chase 10 runs per over more frequently than they fail to chase 8 runs per over.
Compared to the late 2010s, the change in IPL in 2022 and to an even larger extent in 2023 has been that teams batting first have gotten better than taking chances. They’re leaving fewer runs on the pitch batting first than they used to. Almost all of this improvement has come in the area of six hitting. The table below gives the average totals and other details for teams batting first in T20 by season.
There’s no such thing as “scoreboard pressure”. Teams don’t bat worse in the 2nd innings than they do in the 1st. On days when the team batting first scores 10 an over, the team batting first is more likely to win. On days when the team batting first scored 8 an over, the team batting first is likely to lose. The design of the contest is such that teams batting second are only tested on their ability to score 10 an over on days when the team batting first has scored 10 an over. Comfortable chases, completed with wickets in hand and overs to spare, are common. They represent days when the team batting second did significantly better than the team batting first.
The fallacy of “scoreboard pressure” is that it involves the presumption that the score achieved by the team batting first is always the par score. If this were true, then it would be reasonable to think that the chasing team’s failure to achieve the par score equally frequently, is due to something like “scoreboard pressure”.
A score of 200 generally suggests two things: (1) that the team batting first has enjoyed above average luck in the risks that they have taken, and (2) that the team has taken enough risks to score 200. In the edge case, 257 was almost certainly not a par score at Mohali on April 28, 2023.
These two charts give the results of IPL fixtures in the 2023 (above) and 2022 (below) IPLs for teams batting first. They are organized by the asking rate. This illustrates the idea of the par score. If it was true that the team batting first always produces a par score (i.e. that when the team batting first scores 160, that’s the par score for the conditions, and when it produces 200, that’s the par score for the conditions), then smaller scores wouldn’t produce defeats more frequently, and larger scores wouldn’t produce wins more frequently for the team batting first. But they do. It follows that smaller scores are more likely to be the result of batters on the day enjoying below average luck (i.e. being dismissed on an earlier risk than the average batter) and/or batters taking risks less frequently on the day than the average batter, than they are to be related to the conditions.
The shift from 2022 to 2023 has been in the modal score. In 2022, the modal target was 8 runs per over - a Kohli-score (or, less colloquiually, a score within reach of a batter rather than a hitter). In 2023, it is currently 10 runs per over. (The modal target is the economy rate produced most frequently by the team batting first. It is the mode of the distribution). There has also been a corresponding shift in chases. In 2022, a target of 9 runs per over was a winning target - the team batting first won 10 and lost 6. In 2023, so far, it has been a losing target - the team batting first has won 3 and lost 5.
There is no evidence in the record for any notion of “scoreboard pressure”. That phrase is yet another bit of lazy psychobabble popular with the type of fan who cannot conceive of a reason other than weakness in moral fibre for defeat in a cricket match.
Who believes? The greats Sachin Tendulkar, Rahul Dravid, Mike Hussey, Shane Watson and many others have said that. Maybe only the ones who have played professional cricket for decades agree with them. :) It is not about the data whilst sprinting mate, it is at the top of the mark.
Reach out on LinkedIn if interested, I am more than happy to discuss how that works and how not.
Hi Kartikeya,
Excellent piece, thoroughly enjoyed reading this article.
I was wondering if "scoreboard pressure" comes into picture to some extent for the team bowling 2nd in these scenarios (scores 150-170 and 200+). If the side scored 160, their bowlers could be under extra bit of pressure assuming the target could be just at par. Hence, added pressure might negatively impact the accuracy in executing their lengths 7 variations, which eventually results in more loose balls, less risk for batters to convert them to boundaries.
On the other hand, scores 200+ could give a little mental leeway for bowlers. They are more hopeful, less nervous and hence, execute their deliveries more accurately. More risk for batters to convert, thus resulting into wickets and unachievable targets.
Keen to hear your thoughts. :)