South Africa Win World Test Championship 2023-25

Temba Bavuma won what turned out to be a very good toss to win. Kagiso Rabada was marvellous in both innings. He induced 51 false shots in 202 balls, and collectecd 9/110 in the match. Winning the toss allowed South Africa to overcome Lungi Ngidi’s wayward beginning. Ngidi induced only 6 false shots in his 8 overs in the first innings, compared to 21/94 for Rabada, 25/84 for Marco Jansen, and 13/66 for Wiaan Mulder in a Kluseneresque role.

That the conditions were easing by the end of the third innings was evident in Australian last wicket stand between Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood. The pair batted for 134 legal deliveries during which they played only 28 false shots. Over the last 20 years (records for control are available for this period), the average last wicket stand has played a false shot every 3.6 balls. For further comparison, the average opening stand has played a false shot every 6.1 balls.

It is difficult to say if the wicket had already eased by the time Australia lost of their ninth wicket. But it is probably worth wondering whether Australia would have been better off declaring when they were about 8 down and 180 in front, and bowling at the South African top order while the last of the juice in the pitch might still have been available. The point is probably not fair to Pat Cummins. But the wicket did ease significantly. Cummins induced 13 false shots in 102 balls in the 4th innings compared to 34/109 in South Africa’s first innings, Hazlewood induced 12/114 (compared to 22/90 in the first innings). Bavuma and Aiden Markram made the most of that window of fine batting conditions before the wicket dried out and the ball began to grip the surface. By the end of the South African run chase, this had begun. Starc’s pearl to dismiss Tristan Stubbs broke the surface. Nathan Lyon’s off breaks did so regularly out of the rough created by the left arm pace of Mitchell Starc and Marco Jansen in the match.

The South African 4th innings involved 76 false shots in 502 legal deliveries - one every 6.6 balls, compared to one every 4.9 balls, 4.5 balls and 4.1 balls in the first three innings of the match. Had Ngidi been on song from the word go, the consequences would have been interesting. It would likely have shortened the Australian first innings, and hastened the beginning of the 4th. This would probably have meant a smaller 4th innings target, but also better conditions for Cummins and co. to bowl in with the new ball.

It is interesting to think about what might have been. But what was, was glorious. Is glorious. South Africa have some magnificent players and now those players have a winners medal. Knockout sport is a lottery - an artifact of capitalism rather than sporting logic. Finals exist because they make for juicy stories. Those stories will be told in the coming days, hopefully in the highest traditions of fiction and not in the more prevalent B-variety of fiction in which every character is constantly damned with faint praise in tediously indirect and unsubtle ways. For cricket fans, there is Kagiso Rabada and there are the marvellous Australian quick bowlers. There’s Steven Smith and Aiden Markram. There’s plenty more. But that’s more than enough for one cricket fan in one Test match.