Why Pakistan Aren't Winning, And Why Batting Is Irrelevant In Test Cricket

Since the beginning of 2022, Pakistan have lost 7 of their last 11 Tests in Pakistan. In these tests, their average total over ten wickets has been 362.4 runs. They’ve conceded 504 for ten dismissals on average. This is the worst home record in Test cricket in the last 34 months. Pakistan have bowled the visitors out twice in a Test match once in their last 11 home Tests at Multan in 2022. It’s also the match in which they came closest to winning during this dismal period. They lost by 26 runs. Pakistan have made plenty of runs in their last 11 Tests in Pakistan, and those runs have not mattered. They haven’t mattered because Pakistan don’t have a good theory of how they’re going to get opponents out on their home pitches.

Naseem Shah is a terrific bowler. But around him, there isn’t remotely the same quality. Shaheen Shah Afridi hasn’t returned to his best since his injury in 2022. The most prolific wicket takers in Pakistan’s domestic first class cricket (the table below is for the period 2020-24) have been spinners. Most of the top five or six in the list have played for Pakistan off and on recently. But Pakistan don’t seem to know who their five or six best bowlers are. They have played 16 different bowlers in these 11 Tests at home (ignoring the part timers Babar Azam and Saim Ayub from the table below). For comparison, India have played 16 different bowlers in their 43 home Tests since 2016. Those 16 include Jayant Yadav and Washington Sundar.

Who is Pakistan’s first choice slow left arm orthodox bowler? Who is their first choice off spinner? Who is their first choice leg spinner? We don’t know. More importantly, the Pakistan selectors don’t seem to know either. Their plan for taking 20 wickets is consequently unclear. Perhaps the singular emblem of this problem is the presence of Salman Ali Agha in their line up as a spin bowling all rounder, rather than as a top order batter who can bowl. He’s Pakistan’s Jadeja, when he should be their Joe Root (in terms of role, not quality in both case). He’s emblematic of the fact that Pakistan in Pakistan face the classic dilemma of the mid-table side - they’re not confident of taking 20 wickets, so they think playing the extra batter is insurance. This further weakens their attack and costs them runs. His current position is essentially a fudge designed to achieve respectability and not competitiveness. He has scored 287 runs at 72 in Pakistan’s 3 home Tests of 2024 so far, and collected 4/293 in 68 overs with the ball (73 runs per wicket).

Playing so many different bowlers also makes it difficult for their team to develop lines of attack. There’s little opportunity for a bowler to work out how to get players out at Test level - to know which lines of attack are possible against the type (and range) of strokes which different Test players play.

The thing is, Pakistan have the makings of a competent side. They should prepare turning pitches, and play their best off spinner, and their best left arm spinner, and their best leg spinner. Use Aamer Jamal and Naseem Shah with the new ball. The remaining six spots should include five batters and a wicket keeper. It doesn’t really matter which five batters from their current set they choose. Most importantly, once they decide that some bowler X is their best left arm spinner, they ought to persist with this bowler for several Tests.

When a team tours Australia, its clear how the hosts are going to try and take 20 wickets. The same in England, South Africa, New Zealand, India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. It isn’t currently clear in the case of Pakistan (or to Pakistan).

Top wicket takers in Pakistan domestic cricket in the 2020s

Pakistan bowlers in Tests in Pakistan January 1, 2022 to October 11, 2024

Pakistan offer a great example of why batting is essentially irrelevant in Test cricket. List the 8 greatest batters in Pakistan’s Test history, and pick six randomly. (Update: A few readers have reported confusion about this. There are 20160 ways in which a line up of 6 can be created from 8 batters (assuming the order matters). The best performing of these possible line ups Those batters wouldn’t change the outcome of more than maybe one of these eleven Test matches, especially given DRS and neutral umpires (this is not unique to Pakistan). There’s just no way a batting line up can overcome conceding 50 runs per wicket. And its not as though England’s scoring rate made this win possible. They won with five hours to spare. Even if they had batted 200 overs instead of 150, they would still have won. Just like Bangladesh did in August after conceding 448 in the first innings of a rain affected match.

Batting is irrelevant in Test cricket in the sense that, given a cricket playing nation with a mature first class system (of the kind found today in India, Pakistan, England, Australia, South Africa, Pakistan, West Indies, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka), if you list the 8 best batters in each country, and pick any five or six of them for the Test team, the returns in terms of runs will be roughly the same in the long run. There isn’t (or shouldn’t really be) one specific set of five or six for a team which will be significantly better than any of the others for each team.

The norm for the batter in Test cricket is failure. The majority of specialist batters in any Test innings fail. To wonder why a batter is not scoring runs is a bit like wondering why you keep losing the toss with a coin which is biased against you. Runs are also to spare in Test cricket. Take that same all time great Pakistan batting line up, and a line up which is capable of producing 80% of the runs produced by that batting line up will keep Pakistan roughly equally competitive as that all time great Pakistan batting line up will. Wickets on the other hand, are not to spare. An attack capable of taking 20 wickets in Test is vastly more valuable than an attack capable of taking only 16. Taking 16 wickets wins nothing. Bowling teams out twice does.