World Cup 2023, Week 2
So far, the theory about middle-overs bowling seems to hold...
In a World Cup preview over at 81 all out, I took the view that the ability to take wickets in the middle overs would differentiate the best sides from their competitors in the tournament. I felt that there were a lot of teams which had the ability to create problems with the new ball, but few teams which could do it in the second powerplay.
The second powerplay starts in over 11 and ends in over 40. Only four fielders are allowed outside the circle in this 30 over phase of the innings. The capacity to take wickets and keep the runs down in this phase, it seemed, would separate the sides.
With 18 of the 45 matches in the World Cup, this differentiation is evident in the record. New Zealand and India have the best bowling record in the middle overs. Readers should note that to some extent, this depends on venues and opposition faced so far.
Kuldeep Yadav and Ravindra Jadeja have given IND tremendous control in the middle overs. Mitchell Santner has done the same for NZ. PAK have played three high scoring matches, and their bowlers have suffered in that middle period of the innings - they’ve conceded 58 fours and 26 sixes in just over 110 overs - a boundary every 8 balls. SL have had similar problems in the middle overs. AUS have problems too, but Adam Zampa seems to have grown into the tournament. He has the great advantage (which he shares with Kuldeep Yadav) of having a well disguised googly which batters below the top four batting positions in most teams struggle to pick.
A striking feature of the first 18 matches has been the way a few fast bowlers have been hammered for 10 an over. The young SL and CSK prodigy Matheesha Pathirana went for 90 in his 9 overs against PAK. Haris Rauf went for 83 in his 8 overs against Australia. Mark Wood went for 55 in 5 overs against NZ. Chris Woakes went for 41 in 4 overs against Afghanistan (Sam Curran went for 46 in 4 overs in the same match).
The two undefeated teams - IND and NZ - have different advantages. Against IND, opponents will have to target one or two of their four main bowlers, take chances against them, and hope that these come off. Mohammed Siraj and Kuldeep Yadav are the most likely targets. The point of going after them is not, in main, to ensure than they concede 70 or 80. Rather, it is to force Rohit Sharma to bowl Jadeja and Bumrah in parts of the innings where he would rather not use them. This is a risky approach, but since the IND bowlers can’t be relied upon to have a bad day, it is perhaps the only realistic approach. ENG, SA and NZ will all try it, and at least one of them will succeed.
Against NZ, perhaps an effective method would be to go after the fifth bowler and do enough to delay Santner’s arrival at the crease, perhaps by playing an extra left hander in the top order. This type of approach involves disrupting one’s own side to try and disrupt the opposition, so it comes with costs beyond those involved in chancing one’s arm.
The next two weeks promise much. AUS ought to find a way to get Nathan Lyon into their World Cup squad. Adam Zampa requires a partner, and he would be perfect. Lyon replacing Pat Cummins (Steve Smith can be captain) would improve AUS’s balance.
IND face significant difficulty due to the injury to Hardik Pandya. His absence threatens the balance of the IND XI and forces potentially crippling compromises. If they select five bowlers, and one or two of them get hammered for two or three overs, the IND captain will have little room to manuevre given the quotas. If they don’t replace Pandya with Surya Yadav, and instead decide to use R. Ashwin or Shardul Thakur at number 7, it lengthens the tail.
SA promised a great deal, and then fell unexpectedly against the Netherlands. Such banana skins (see also, AFG v ENG) are not fatal in the current tournament format. NZ’s current position at the top of the table may prove to be deceptive given their schedule. ENG need to find a way to get wickets in the middle overs, and it is not clear who they can turn to. Currently, their plan seems to be to use Mark Wood as a shock weapon of sorts. But so far, this has not worked on the very good batting pitches which ODIs in IND are typically played on. SL seem to be a player short with both bat and ball. It is very likely that losing Hasaranga de Silva and Dasun Shanaka has given them the very same balance problems which IND will have to worry about, having lost Pandya.
The early indications suggest that IND will top the table. But the more recent matches also suggest that AUS are coming into their own.
Records below. Please see captions for explanations of each table.
Really interesting analysis. Hardik Pandya being out is definitely a concern especially against India's next match against table-toppers NZ. Maybe subbing out Pandya for SKY and Shardul for Shami might do the trick. While it does reduce the manoeverability Rohit Sharma had with 6 bowlers, Shami's track record does place him much better than Shardul. It's a gamble against the dominant team in the tournament. But, it could just pay off