World Cup Review: October 31, 2023
All teams have now played six out of their nine fixtures. The table blow gives the performance of each team with the ball according to my expected runs and dismissals model in the middle 30 overs (11-40) of the innings.
IND and AFG are the only two teams which have conceded fewer runs than the average ODI side expects to concede, and have taken more wickets than the average ODI side expects to take in the middle 30 overs in their respective matches.
The expected runs and dismissals from a given delivery are calculated as summarized here. In the table, “net_rc” gives runs conceded “rc” - expected runs “exp_rc”. “net_exp_w” gives wickets taken “w” - expected wickets “exp_w”.
AUS, NZ, SA have been expensive in the middle overs, but they also taken wickets at an above average level. SL, PAK, NETH, ENG and BAN have not only conceded a lot of runs, but they’ve managed fewer wickets than the average side expects to take.
It is becoming apparent that what I expected BAN’s spinners to achieve has been achieved by the superb AFG trio of Rashid Khan, Mohammad Nabi and Mujeeb.
Two thirds of the way through the league, the top four positions in the table are becoming clear - IND, AUS, SA and NZ are favorites to qualify for the knockout matches. Of the three NZ have a challenging run in. It looks unlikely that five wins will be sufficient to make the cut in 4th place. Both AUS and NZ have a good chance of winning two out of their remaining three league fixtures. However, should NZ lose to PAK and SA, and should PAK win their remaining three fixtures (they’re on the way to winning one of the three as I write this), they could sneak into the 4th spot.
So far in this World Cup, IND have been both thrilling and convincing. NZ have had a favorable schedule and have made the most of it. They also have, in Mitchell Santner, a maestro in the middle overs. SA have been thrilling, but not entirely convincing. AUS began in the deep end, but have steadily made their way to the shallows. Adam Zampa has come into his own. They are missing a second spinner, but given where their remaining fixtures are scheduled, this will probably not hurt them as much as it might have had a Semi Final been scheduled in Lucknow or Chennai.
There is a slim chance a spot will still be open come the big Saturday double header on November 11 (ENG v PAK, AUS v BAN). It is far more likely that the semi finalists will be settled by the next weekly review.
