This is great analysis. As an avid tennis player I intuitively get what you are trying to say. One just has to execute better and make better decisions. The better players are just better. Period.
What makes tennis unique is that the scoring system is neither time bound nor based on cumulative aggregates. This makes it tough to close out matches because it aids in comebacks ( you can be 6-0 6-0 up yet lose if opponent wins 6-7,6-7,6-7). Over 5 sets though the better player typically wins with more aggregate points. The margins between good players are thin and one needs to win just 52-55% of points to win a match- this is roughly the average I think you will see for the best players ( column average in table 1). Would point you to Craig O’Shannessy's work in tennis analytics regarding this - (https://www.braingametennis.com)
Also the server always has the advantage in pro tennis - see John Isner's wild variations between win percentage at 40-0 vs 0-40. His return games are terrible.
May I also suggest including data from ATP Masters events ( best of 3 sets) in this to analyze them together and separately to see if the shorter best of 3 format shows any specific trends. i.e akin to T20 vs Tests :-)
This is great analysis. As an avid tennis player I intuitively get what you are trying to say. One just has to execute better and make better decisions. The better players are just better. Period.
What makes tennis unique is that the scoring system is neither time bound nor based on cumulative aggregates. This makes it tough to close out matches because it aids in comebacks ( you can be 6-0 6-0 up yet lose if opponent wins 6-7,6-7,6-7). Over 5 sets though the better player typically wins with more aggregate points. The margins between good players are thin and one needs to win just 52-55% of points to win a match- this is roughly the average I think you will see for the best players ( column average in table 1). Would point you to Craig O’Shannessy's work in tennis analytics regarding this - (https://www.braingametennis.com)
Also the server always has the advantage in pro tennis - see John Isner's wild variations between win percentage at 40-0 vs 0-40. His return games are terrible.
May I also suggest including data from ATP Masters events ( best of 3 sets) in this to analyze them together and separately to see if the shorter best of 3 format shows any specific trends. i.e akin to T20 vs Tests :-)
Thank you for those leads.