IND v ENG Preview

The hosts play the current world cup winners in Lucknow today. At the start of the World Cup, I felt that ENG would miss the wicket taking prowess of Jofra Archer. Even so, I didn’t think that, come Match 29/45, IND would be near the top of the table and ENG would be at the bottom.

The tables below give the record for bowling and batting sides in the middle 30 overs (11-40) of an ODI innings. Note that IND’s record is shaped a bit by the peculiarity that regardless of the toss, they’ve batted second all five times in the World Cup so far. If they get the chance, they should try and bat first today, if only because they could use the practice.

ENG’s batting has not been in great form - they’ve conceded a wicket every 27 balls in the middle 30 overs of the innings (by contract, IND have conceded a wicket every 61 balls in this part of the innings). ENG are still scoring quickly in the middle overs.

But ENG’s real problems have been with the ball in this tournament. In the middle overs, ENG have managed a wicket every 61 balls - they’re averaging 3 wickets in the middle overs - in the middle of the innings. Every other side in the World Cup has done better so far. ENG need to find wickets in the middle overs. It is not clear where they will find these wickets. ENG’s squad is designed to produce runs, not wickets.

IND are due a bad game, and ENG are probably due a good game. They’ve beaten ENG 2-1 home (in 2021) and away (in 2022) in their ODI encounters since the 2019 World Cup.

One measure I’ve been keeping track of during this world cup is the share of balls in the middle overs which are scored from by the batting and bowling side. IND have scored from 57% of their deliveries in the middle overs, and the IND bowlers have conceded from 50% of their deliveries. ENG have scored from 54% of their deliveries, while ENG’s bowlers have conceded from 59% of their deliveries. IND have been 7% to the good in this regard, while ENG have been 5% in the red.

Lucknow, along with Chepauk, has been one of the slower scoring grounds during this World Cup so far. Had Pandya been available, IND might have been tempted to play Ashwin in this match. But, with Pandya missing, and IND likely to play only five bowlers, it will have to be a very dry wicket for IND to play only 2 fast bowlers. It is very likely that IND will play the same XI which played their previous fixture.

ENG’s XI from their previous fixture (SL beat ENG in Bangalore on October 26) looks formidable on paper. It is possible that ENG will strengthen their bowling by picking Atkinson in place of Woakes. But realistically, they haven’t got a bowler in their squad who can improve them significantly. The other possibility is that ENG will prefer Sam Curran to Chris Woakes given that the latter is a lefty. They already have David Willey in their XI. Most of all, ENG will hope that Mark Wood has a successful day. He’s their strike bowler, and he has managed three wickets in five outings (and 35 overs) so far.

ENG are likely to have a better day than their form so far suggests. It will be a close game.