Mean Reversion
IND square the series 1-1
Mean reversion is the idea that the greater the deviation of a random variate from itS mean, the greater the probability that the next measured variate will be nearer to the mean. Basically, it means that an extreme event is likely to be followed by a less extreme event when the distribution of events is normal (for eg. the distribution of scores achieved by a Test team).
At Centurion, Dean Elgar was beaten on just the inside edge twice when he was on 8, and half a dozen times in all sorts of ways in his first 20 balls. He survived 57 false shots in 286 balls. At Cape Town in the new year, Elgar inside edged his 6th false shot onto his stumps and was dismissed for four in the first innings. In the second, he was caught at first slip to his 5th false shot to be dismissed for 12 in 28 balls. Elgar was dismissed twice in 11 false shots at Cape Town after being dismissed just once in 58 false shots at Centurion.
Jasprit Bumrah (8/86) and Mohammed Siraj (7/46) bowled South Africa out twice, before the Indian top order brought all of their stroke making experience against fast bowling to bear to collect enough runs to win by 7 wickets. India’s top six produced 199(279) for 9 dismissals in the match, scoring at 4.3 runs per over. That’s the quickest scoring rate by an IND top six in a Test match in SENAW1 this century. It’s also only the 3rd time that IND’s top six have managed 4.0 runs per over or more in a Test match in this century. The other two were in St. Lucia in 2006 (Virender Sehwag made 180, including 99 in the first session of the match), and in Port of Spain in 2023.
It’s worth reflecting on the batting for a bit here. There seems to be a perception that the current IND batting (and Test batting in general) lacks either the technique or the application or the skill to navigate difficult batting conditions, unlike their predecessors.
IND didn’t face a single ball of spin in this Test series in South Africa. At Centurion South Africa didn’t pick a spinner, while at Cape Town Keshav Maharaj did not bowl. If we compare the SENAW careers of Sachin Tendulkar and Virat Kohli (they’re useful for such purposes. Between them, they span IND’s Test cricket from 1989 to 2024), and look for Tests in which the hosts did not bowl a single ball of spin, then it looks something like this.
Tendulkar played 73 Tests in SENAW. The hosts didn't bowl a single ball of spin in 6 out of those 73 Tests
Perth 1992: IND 20/413 (L)
Durban 1996: IND 20/166 (L)
Wellington 2002: IND 20/282 (L)
Hamilton 2002: IND 20/253 (L)
Durban 2006: IND 20/419 (L)
Perth 2012: IND 20/332 (L)
Kohli has played 53 Tests in SENAW. The hosts didn’t bowl a single ball of spin in 9 of the 53 Tests.
Perth 2012: IND 20/332 (L)
Wellington 2014: IND 13/604 (D)
Johannesburg 2018: IND 20/434 (W)
Lord's 2018: IND 20/237 (L)
Christchurch 2020: IND 20/366 (L)
Southampton 2021: IND 20/387 (L)
Trent Bridge 2021: IND 11/330 (D)
Centurion 2023: IND 20/376 (L)
Cape Town 2024: IND: 13/233 (W)
There’s more fast bowling generally in Kohli’s era than there is in Tendulkar’s. The amount of spin the hosts bowl is a good indicator of how easy or difficult run scoring has been for IND’s batting in SENAW venues. The chart below shows this relationship for the period 1970-2024. In matches where the hosts deliver less than 5% of their balls using spinners, IND average 20.2. In matches where the hosts delivery at least 1/3rd of their bowling using spinners, IND average 40.
The table below gives IND’s batting average in the Tendulkar and Kohli eras in Tests in SENAW venues. The matches are organized by the percentage of spin bowling delivered by the hosts. Readers will note that 20% of balls delivered by spin implies that 1 in 5 overs is delivered by spin. In the Kohli era, the hosts delivered no spin bowling at all 8/50 Tests, compared to 6/80 in the Tendulkar era.
The one difference between the two eras is the prevalence of DRS, which, as evidence shows, has benefited finger spinners greatly. Nevertheless, IND’s batting in the Kohli era compares well with their batting overseas in the Tendulkar era, even though, about half of the Tendulkar era was played a period of relative shallow fast bowling stocks (see the chart at the end of this post).
There’s nothing to suggest that batting techniques have declined. There is some evidence to suggest that fast bowling quality and depth has spread deeper and wider than ever before. Draws have become rarer due to DRS, better drainage at grounds, and the use of lights whenever they are available.
IND face a lot more fast bowling than they used to. In the Kohli era, they have faced spinners less than 20% of the time in half their Tests in SENAW (Won 6, Lost 17, Drawn 2). In the Tendulkar era they faced spinners less than 20% of the time in 35/80 Tests (Won 6, Lost 20, Drawn 9). In SENAW Tests in which the hosts bowl spin at least 20% of the time, IND have Won 11, Lost 7 and Drawn 7 in the Kohli era, compared to a 4-15-26 record in the Tendulkar era.
Perhaps Test cricket has become less attritional. In the balance between trying to win and trying to avoid losing, teams have chosen to to try to win more readily in recent years. The Cape Town Test was all attack all the time. The fast bowlers flew in to extremely attacking fields, and the batters sought to meet fire with fire. The conditions made this the rational approach. It made for a thrilling Test match.
Tests like the Cape Town match are a good thing as long as they don’t become the norm. Pitches like this Newlands wicket take the toss out of the game because there’s never a time when they’re expected to play well. Perhaps, with World Test Championship points on the line, home teams are choosing to prepare such pitches. Traditionally, the toss is worth about 47 runs for the team winning it (Teams which win the toss and bat score 358 batting first, while teams which are sent in score 311 on average). The pitches IND prepare when they host ENG next month will most probably be informed by these concerns.
SENAW : South Africa, England, New Zealand, Australia, West Indies