I’ve been using a modification of my old misbah-jogi system for estimated expected runs for the past couple of years. The expected runs from a given delivery depends simple on three factors: (a) the scoring rate of the innings at the start of that delivery, (b) the number of balls remaining in the innings, and (c) the number of wickets in hand.
The record of players in the 2023 IPL is given in charts at the end of this post.
Keeping in mind the 7 IND player rule.
1. Yashasvi Jaiswal
2. Jason Roy
3. Suryakumar Yadav
4. Glenn Maxwell
5. Ajinkya Rahane
6. Heinrich Klaasen (wk)
7. R Ashwin
8. Axar Patel
9. Mohammed Shami
10. Mohammed Siraj
11. Matheesha Pathirana
Reserves:
Phil Salt
Faf du Plessis
Varun Chakravarthy
Mark Wood
Noor Ahmed
(Jofra Archer would be included in this squad, but he has not been included since he’s out of the tournament injured).
Batting:
misbah: runs above expected runs, per innings; rpi: runs scored per innings; bpi: balls faced per innings; sr: scoring rate per 100 bf; bf: balls faced; positions: batting positions; m: matches
Bowling:
jogi: runs above expected runs, per innings; rpi, bpi: runs conceded per innings, balls bowled per innings; sr: runs conceded per 100 balls bowled; bb: balls bowled; m: matches
Although the primary aim is to score as fast as possible like you said, I believe roles do exist in T20s. It gives a clearer idea for the player to maximize their abilities.
It is very hard for me to accept a team that has no Rashid Khan and as much as I like Phil Salt, he has to do a lot more to get into the 15.
Thanks Kartikeya. Nice read.
2-3 questions though:
1. Are you surprised why FaF didn't make it to the first 11, despite being the leading scorer?
2. Would picking Rahane at 5 make sense practically, since his role is to maximize in powerplay.
3. If you were to name a 11 again without any modelling (just from your experience of watching this IPL), what differences do you see in that case
Thank you again