I’ve been using a modification of my old misbah-jogi system for estimated expected runs for the past couple of years. The expected runs from a given delivery depends simple on three factors: (a) the scoring rate of the innings at the start of that delivery, (b) the number of balls remaining in the innings, and (c) the number of wickets in hand.
Thanks Kartikeya. Nice read.
2-3 questions though:
1. Are you surprised why FaF didn't make it to the first 11, despite being the leading scorer?
2. Would picking Rahane at 5 make sense practically, since his role is to maximize in powerplay.
3. If you were to name a 11 again without any modelling (just from your experience of watching this IPL), what differences do you see in that case
Thank you again
Although the primary aim is to score as fast as possible like you said, I believe roles do exist in T20s. It gives a clearer idea for the player to maximize their abilities.
It is very hard for me to accept a team that has no Rashid Khan and as much as I like Phil Salt, he has to do a lot more to get into the 15.